By Chris Muganzi.
The recent victory of an independent candidate over the National Resistance Movement (NRM) flag bearer in the Kisoro Woman MP by-election marks a significant shift in the political landscape of a region traditionally dominated by the ruling party. This outcome carries profound implications for the NRM and offers critical lessons for Uganda’s political dynamics.
For decades, Kisoro District has been regarded as a stronghold of the NRM, where its candidates have enjoyed overwhelming support. The party’s defeat—despite the involvement of key government officials, ministers, and even President Yoweri Museveni in campaigning for its candidate—is not just a local political upset but a national wake-up call.
The fact that an independent candidate triumphed despite the NRM’s vast resources and political machinery underscores growing voter dissatisfaction. This discontent may stem from unmet expectations, perceived arrogance within the party’s leadership, or a disconnect between NRM candidates and the grassroots electorate.
This loss suggests that the NRM’s stronghold status in traditional regions is no longer guaranteed. It signals a potential decline in the party’s ability to maintain an unquestionable majority across the country.
The emergence of strong independent candidates often points to unresolved conflicts within the party. Discontented members, sidelined during the primaries, may opt to run independently, fracturing the NRM’s support base.
To counteract this trend, the NRM must improve its primary processes to ensure transparency, fairness, and inclusivity. Allegations of favoritism or rigging during the nomination process erode trust and drive potential candidates to run as independents.
Furthermore, the defeat highlights a disconnect between the NRM leadership and the local population. Prioritizing grassroots concerns, involving local leaders, and addressing voter grievances can help rebuild trust and strengthen the party’s position.
While the involvement of ministers and the president can amplify campaigns, over-reliance on such figures risks alienating voters, who may perceive it as excessive or coercive. Genuine connections and community-based campaigning are often more impactful.
The rise of independent candidates reflects changing voter dynamics. The NRM must evolve to address the aspirations of an increasingly informed and independent electorate. Internal divisions must also be addressed to foster unity among party members—a united front is essential for retaining dominance in competitive elections.
The victory of the independent candidate is a testament to the growing maturity of Uganda’s democracy. It reflects voters’ willingness to challenge entrenched systems and exercise their agency.
This development serves as a reminder that political parties must remain accountable and responsive to the electorate.
The Kisoro by-election result presents a critical moment for the NRM to reflect, regroup, and strategize. While it highlights weaknesses within the party, it also offers an opportunity to address them. For Uganda, this outcome reinforces the importance of competitive elections in ensuring that leaders prioritize the needs of their constituents. As the political climate continues to evolve, the NRM must adapt to remain relevant and resonate with the people.
By Chris Muganzi
Enganzi ya Bushenyi – Ishaka Municipality (BIM)
(Independent MP Candidate, BIM 2026–2031)
